Forest Ecology and Management

Large old trees are of eminent importance for organic carbon storage in forest ecosystems and thus play a role in mitigating climate change. Such trees also have an increased risk of internal stem decay and tree cavity formation, which promotes biodiversity, but complicates the prediction of their biomass and carbon stocks, which is usually done from stem diameter and tree height data applying allometric biomass functions. Since the extent of internal stem decay is known to vary widely between different forest ecosystems and data from moist temperate forests exhibited low significance of internal stem decay, we studied dry, frequently fire-exposed Pinus ponderosa forests in central Oregon to capture the other climatic extreme of temperate forests. We hypothesized high significance of internal stem decay for stand aboveground tree biomass, as we assumed widespread stem injury from fire. In addition, we tested the hypothesis that far more than the largest 1% of trees are necessary for 50% stand biomass, as this hypothesis is found in the literature, but has been challenged in other studies. We found low biomass loss due to internal stem decay by only ca. 1% suggesting that also for fire-prone temperate forests of western North America, biomass estimates based on allometric regression are reliable. The 1% largest trees-50% stand aboveground biomass hypothesis has to be rejection for our forests as long as only trees of a size are included that noteworthily contribute to stand biomass. This metrics strongly depends on regeneration density, which is not relevant for stand biomass.

Habitat fragmentation disrupts metapopulation dynamics by altering environmental conditions and constraining demographic processes critical for persistence and recruitment. In the dry Afromontane forests of northern Ethiopia, we investigated how natural and anthropogenic drivers affect seedlings, saplings, and mature tree dynamics of Olea europaea subsp. cuspidata across 34 patches. We used dynamic occurrence models to quantify effects of patch area, altitude, browsing, and disturbance. Our results indicate that high disturbance reduces seedling occurrence probability lower disturbance sites has seedling in 30% of survey plots, high disturbance would bring this down to 10% (median = -1.322, 95% CI: -2.703 to -0.283). Disturbance makes seedling less likely to persist, while large patch size help seedling persists (median = -0.93, 9 5 % CrI -1.87 - -0.02). For mature individuals, disturbance was the only significant predictor of occurrence probability, suggesting greater resistance to environmental and spatial variability compared to earlier life stages. These findings emphasize that while mature trees display resilience, the successful regeneration of Olea europaea is constrained by disturbance, but current level of browsing is not a threat. Management strategies for conservation should prioritise reducing disturbance through community engagement and forest stewardship to enhance regeneration potential and ensure long-term population viability.

Primary and old-growth forests are globally valued for their biodiversity, ecosystem services, and cultural significance. The EU Biodiversity Strategy and EU Forest Strategy for 2030 require strict protection of remaining primary and old-growth forests, yet they cover only about 3% of EU forest area and remain highly threatened. The European Commissions guidelines define old-growth forests using three main indicators--native tree species, deadwood, and large/old trees--supported by five complementary indicators. Implementing these indicators for boreal and hemiboreal old-growth forests in northern Europe currently lack science-based operational criteria that meet EU legal standards. We provide recommendations for implementing European Commissions indicators with science-based operational criteria and thresholds to minimize misclassification and ensure cost-effective conservation. Key thresholds include native species dominance, [≥]5% deadwood of the total wood volume, and [≥]20 large/old trees per hectare. Additional guidance is offered for regeneration patterns, structural complexity, microhabitats, and indicator species, emphasizing that all indicators should be applied collectively.

O_LICalluna vulgaris is often managed in the UK by rotational burning, but this practice has recently been banned on peat with depth greater than 30-40 cm. It is unclear how then to manage the large areas of Calluna on blanket bogs used for sport shooting because without managed burning, fuel loads and wildfire risk will increase as the Calluna ages within the artificially narrow age distributions created by burn management. C_LIO_LIWe developed a model of Calluna mortality and management to understand duration and persistence of post-management effects. This allows us to assess how long it will take to reach a more natural age structure which would allow increased diversity if management ceases. C_LIO_LIOur results show that management effects persist for around 50 years depending on site-specific mortality rates. Active management may therefore be needed either to mitigate the elevated risk of severe wildfire or to speed up this transition. C_LIO_LISome studies have employed, as unmanaged analogues, Calluna stands that were last managed <50 years ago, but such studies may have unintentionally biased their results by observing Calluna still in post-management recovery leading to an over-estimation of wildfire risk associated with more natural blanket bogs. C_LIO_LISynthesis and applications: with the banning of burning as a management tool for Calluna on deep peat, alternative management is now likely needed as our model shows it could take around 50 years for the Calluna to reach a more natural age distribution. Mowing can replicate some of the effects of managed burning but requires repeated intervention and may compress the peat surface from repeated machine tracking. Rewetting and Sphagnum reintroduction may offer a more sustainable management approach to lowering Calluna fuel loads and reducing severe wildfire risk by creating wetter sub-optimal conditions for Calluna growth and thereby altering the competitive balance between Sphagnum and Calluna. Further work is needed to assess the efficacy of rewetting in controlling fuel loads and how this varies with climate and local pressures. More broadly, this work highlights the need to quantify the persistence of past management regimes to understand ecological trajectories. C_LI

Climatic and biogeographic variables are often used as a proxy for tree genetic diversity, but local factors can also influence it. We propose that woodland age, presence of ancient trees, and population size could impact genetic diversity. Using the RBG Kew UK National Tree Seed Project as a study case, we examined how these factors are accounted for during seed collection. We found 42% of tree seed collections come from ancient woodlands and that 8.4% overlap with ancient trees. Sampled forest patches size ranges from few individuals to several thousand. We then carried out a pilot to examine the role of population size on functional traits variation, testing the relationship between population size and seed germination and seedling thermal stress sensitivity in three populations of the Betula pubescens Ehrh. complex. We found that seeds and seedlings from larger populations showed higher fitness and stress resistance. Our results highlight the importance of local factors to predict variation in functional traits, relevant for tree resilience. Existing seed collections of native species stored in conservation seed banks offer a valuable resource to explore these factors and improve our understanding of genetic diversity in tree populations, with implications for biodiversity conservation and forestry production.

Longitudinal data on disease susceptibility in forest trees are rare but essential for understanding host-pathogen dynamics and genetic variation in susceptibility traits. We present a long-term multisite common garden dataset quantifying susceptibility of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) to Dothistroma needle blight. The dataset comprises annual disease assessments collected from the same trees across 11 years, spanning 168 families and 21 Scottish provenances. This design enables partitioning of genetic and environmental sources of variation, evaluation of temporal stability in host response, and estimation of variance components and narrow-sense heritability of susceptibility. The data support analyses of phenotypic plasticity, provenance-level responses, and interactions between disease susceptibility and other adaptive traits. This resource will facilitate predictive modelling of host susceptibility under current and future environmental conditions.

Ectomycorrhizal (EcM) fungi are well-recognized symbionts impacting tree health and ecosystem functioning globally, yet understanding of their timing of proliferation in soils across seasons and years remains limited. We analyzed monthly patterns of EcM fungal abundance and community structure over two years in five temperate monodominant forest plots via quantitative PCR and Illumina sequencing. We found that the phenological dynamics of EcM fungi differed significantly by host tree leaf habit, fungal exploration type, fungal genus, and soil moisture. Overall, total EcM fungal abundances based on qPCR consistently peaked in autumn, and were more dynamic in evergreen than deciduous plots, supporting ideas of surplus carbon and asymmetric above-belowground dynamics. Longer-distance exploration types peaked earlier and were more stable than shorter-distance types, suggesting an independent and supportive role in releasing spring nutrients. About half of 20 focal taxa consistently peaked in either autumn, summer, or spring, while others were either host- and/or year-dependent. Our findings highlight that phenology is a key EcM fungal trait best explained by both host and fungal contributions, and future studies across biomes should consider seasonal shifts and sampling to elucidate phenological traits. Summary- The timing of belowground production and seasonal community dynamics remain poorly understood for ectomycorrhizal (EcM) fungi. - We collected soils monthly for two years from five temperate monodominant forest plots. - Fungal production peaked in autumn, shorter-distance and evergreen-associated spanned wider ranges, and half of focal fungal genera showed seasonal preference, emphasizing autumn surplus carbon and spring nutrients from long-distance types. - Future studies should consider seasonal shifts when sampling EcM fungal communities, and forest carbon models should include asymmetric above-belowground phenology. Translated Summary (Spanish)- La fenologia de la produccion y composicion de comunidades de hongos ectomicorrizicos (EcM) es poco estudiada. - Recolectamos suelos mensualmente por dos anos de cinco parcelas mono-dominantes templados. - Produccion maxima de hongos ocurrio en otono, hongos asociados con arboles siempreverdes y de exploracion de corta-distancia observaron rangos mas amplios, y la mitad de generos de hongos focales observaron preferencia estacional, enfatizando extra carbono en otono y nutrientes en primavera de tipos larga-distancia. - Estudios deben considerar cambios estacionales para el muestreo de hongos EcM, y modelos de carbono deben incluir fenologia asimetrica entre hojas y hongos. Plain language summaryEctomycorrhizal fungi are critical for the global carbon cycle, but their seasonal and inter-annual growth patterns remain unclear. We sample soil DNA monthly over two years across five different monodominant temperate forest stands. We find an overall belowground peak in autumn, with significantly later growth under wetter conditions, more dynamism with evergreen trees, and distinct spring growth by longer-distance fungi.

Early management decisions in operational forestry are critical for plantation success because it strongly influences seedling quality at planting. Beyond shaping seedling morphology, nursery inputs can also restructure root-associated fungal communities which has consequences for nutrient acquisition, stress tolerance and disease suppression after planting. In this study, we altered nutrient and fungicide inputs based on mycorrhizal ecological theory and quantified the effects of these treatments on key dimensions of the growth performance of radiata pine seedlings. In parallel, we profiled the root-associated mycobiome, assigning fungal taxa to functional guilds and summarizing their richness, diversity, relative abundance and community structure. Using a composite performance index that integrates the key morphological and health measures into a single response variable, together with conventional statistical models with machine learning approaches, we identified management practises that promote both plant performance and a favourable root fungal community and determined the consistent microbiome changes linked to overall quality of the seedlings. These results suggest that microbial feedback loops occur even in highly managed nursery conditions. More broadly, by combining a composite performance index with predictive modelling, we provide a practical way to test complex management combinations and identify microbiome features associated with high-quality planting stock.

Heat tolerance determines the vitality of tree species under climate change independently of drought tolerance, but has been much less studied than tree water relations. We studied species-specific differences and the capacity for seasonal heat acclimation in Central Europes naturally most important tree species, Fagus sylvatica, in comparison with two exotic tree species (Fagus orientalis, Pseudotsuga menziesii) that are considered for silvicultural climate change adaptation in managed forests. Foliage of mature trees was incubated at temperatures from 35-50 {degrees}C for up to 4 h to simulate daily heat maxima during heat waves. The maximum quantum yield (Fv/Fm) of photosystem II (PS II) of dark-adapted leaves was measured, because the PS II is particularly sensitive to heat and its functionality can decide on plant survival under heat. Fagus sylvatica was much more tolerant to heat than Pseudotsuga menziesii, but weakly (albeit significantly) less tolerant than Fagus orientalis. Within its limits, Pseudotsuga menziesii showed high seasonal heat acclimation with constantly increasing tolerance during the growing season. Fagus orientalis, but practically not Fagus sylvatica, also acclimated to heat. This makes Fagus orientalis slightly superior over Fagus sylvatica in terms of heat tolerance, whereas the suitability of Pseudotsuga menziesii for silvicultural climate change adaptation is questionable. Strong heat acclimation, but also overall low heat tolerance, in Pseudotsuga menziesii might be the result of evergreenness, which requires the generation of both cold and heat tolerance during the year.

QuestionsEcological monitoring, repeated collection of ecological data, is essential to document how ecosystems respond to change. In grasslands, different vegetation monitoring protocols are used across disciplines, making it difficult to address multiple management objectives or research questions. We asked four questions about how three common vegetation monitoring protocols compare. (1) How do the protocols differ in how they collect data? (2) How do the protocols differ in their utility? (3) In what ways do vegetation measurements quantitatively differ across protocols? (4) What are each protocols strengths? LocationThis study was conducted on working ranches in the Southern Great Plains with vegetation consisting mainly of native forbs and grasses. MethodsWe implemented three protocols at each site: (1) the Rangeland Analysis Platform (RAP), (2) the Grassland Effectiveness Monitoring (GEM) protocol, and (3) a typical pollinator ecology survey protocol. We qualitatively compared each protocols utility and quantitatively compared cover measurements that each produced. ResultsAll three protocols displayed positive associations within cover categories, but differed in actual cover measurements. The RAP protocol, which uses remote sensing, measured the highest total vegetation cover. The GEM protocol, a line-point intercept method, had more capability to capture fine-scale cover patterns. The GEM protocol measured the most bare ground while the Pollinator protocol measured more forb coverage. ConclusionFine-scale methods like the GEM protocol are most appropriate to address objectives that require capturing small patterns that would otherwise be overlooked with methods like quadrats or remote sensing. Remote sensing is advantageous when monitoring large areas or inaccessible land, but may over-estimate cover. The Pollinator protocol is best equipped to address questions regarding flower abundance and richness. Similarities among protocols can facilitate synergy across disciplines for more effective monitoring. We emphasize the importance of denoting a clear scale and scope of monitoring objectives before selecting methods.

Forest regeneration depends not only on how many seeds trees produce, but on the physiological quality of those seeds. Yet while climate-driven shifts in seed quantity and masting have received sustained attention, the parallel question of whether climate change degrades seed quality remains poorly resolved. Using a nationwide dataset of seed mass and viability in European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) collected between 1996 and 2024 (13,349 seed lots from 381 forest districts across Poland), with climate-quality analyses focused on 5,374 freshly harvested seed lots from 353 districts (2004-2023), we asked whether the two components of seed quality respond to different seasonal climatic windows, and whether harvest-year climate also shapes seed performance during long-term cold storage. Seed mass and seed viability were only weakly correlated (Spearmans {rho} = 0.15), acting as two independent dimensions of seed quality. Both revealed substantial temporal variation over the study period, but along distinct trajectories. Seed mass declined markedly between segmented-regression breakpoints in 2009 and 2019, more steeply at higher latitudes, coinciding spatially and temporally with the masting breakdown reported at the species northeastern range margin. Climatic associations were correspondingly divergent. Viability was positively associated with previous summer temperature, consistent with temperature-cued flower initiation, and negatively with spring temperature in the harvest year, plausibly reflecting thermal disruption of early embryogenesis. Seed mass showed no significant association with any seasonal climatic predictor, indicating control by slower or unmeasured processes. Storage duration progressively reduced viability, and this decline was further modulated by climate during seed development, with seeds developing under climatically suboptimal conditions losing viability faster. These results expose a hidden decoupling between seed quantity and seed quality under contemporary climate change, with direct consequences for forest regeneration and for ex situ conservation strategies that assume mast-year seeds will remain viable for decades.

The release and management of pheasants (Phasianus colchicus) in the UK for recreational shooting exerts a range of effects on the ecosystem into which they are released. We studied possible effect of nutrient deposition on epiphytic tree flora at 20 pheasant release sites distributed through England (18) and Wales (2) during winter and spring 2023/24. Sites were all Ancient Semi-natural Woodlands (ASNWs) and had substantial (600-8000 pheasants) in a single release pen. We measured N-sensitive and N-tolerant indicator bryophyte and lichen species on tree trunks near to the pen and then in plots along a transect 100m, 250m, 500m and 1km+ away from the pen. To achieve a gradient of pheasant use, the transects were located in the opposite direction to the game managed / shooting area. We recorded 1.9 times more coverage of N-tolerant lichens and bryophytes combined on selected tree species at the pen-edge compared to the control plots. The relationship showed a decline from the pen edge to 250m away but then stabilised. We also detected higher levels of coverage of N-sensitive tree flora at 100m and 250 m compared to the penedge plot. These measures were also higher at these mid distances compared to the 500m and 1000m plots. We suggest far plots were nearer wood edges and were affected by ambient inputs of aerial N from farmland and other external sources. The overall interpretation is that concentrations of pheasants in and around release pens for several months from late summer until early winter in ASNWs does affect the balance of N-sensitive and tolerant tree flora up to potentially 250m and this is a consideration when locating release pens in and near to sensitive woods.

Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis), a wide-ranging high-elevation conifer in western North America, is listed as threatened in the U.S. and as endangered in Canada. A major threat to whitebark pine is the non-native, invasive white pine blister rust disease, caused by the fungal pathogen Cronartium ribicola. In many pathosystems (including white pine blister rust), seedling inoculation trials are used to identify parent trees with genetic resistance. However, many of these trials use only one spore density for inoculation, and little information exists on the effectiveness of quantitative disease resistance (QDR) under varying spore densities and the corresponding implications for field performance. In this study, we examine the levels of infection and survival present within six whitebark pine seedling families previously rated for QDR (three susceptible and three resistant families) under six widely varying inoculum densities. The susceptible families showed very high infection and mortality at all inoculum densities, while performance of the resistant families varied with spore density treatment. The information gathered from the study will be useful in updating the projections of the future of whitebark pine populations under field conditions in areas of different rust hazard. The results also serve as a caution to those working in other pathosystems where seedling inoculation trials based on one spore density level are used to rate the resistance level of parent trees and their associated progeny.

The ongoing decline in biodiversity highlights the need for understanding the causes of population changes. This study uses 25-year, large-scale monitoring dataset to investigate the influence of climate and landscape structure on the annual population growth rates of 84 bird species across Poland. Our methodological framework involves the spatiotemporal decomposition of these environmental drivers to decouple demographic effects of long-term carrying capacities from the short-term effects of environmental perturbations. Using species-specific demographic models followed by a community-wide meta-analysis, we evaluated how individual species responses scale up to shape community-level dynamics. The results reveal significant variation in species-specific responses to individual drivers. At the community level, our findings suggest that bird populations are mainly regulated by the long-term spatial constraints rather than short-term disturbances. Persistent environmental heterogeneity had the strongest positive demographic effect on birds, followed by temperature, forest dominance over croplands, and precipitation. In contrast, rapid temporal shifts in environmental heterogeneity and precipitation anomalies negatively affected population growth, whereas urbanisation consistently exerted a negative effect across both spatiotemporal dimensions. Our results highlight the significance of protecting existing heterogeneous and ecotonal habitats, as well as the need to incorporate features that enhance habitat heterogeneity into urban development. Article impact statementPreserving heterogeneous habitats is essential for the conservation of bird populations.

Forests play a crucial role in mitigating climate change as primary terrestrial carbon sinks. While some studies suggest that global warming enhances forest productivity, a growing body of evidence highlights detrimental impact primarily driven by increased water stress. Yet the extent to which positive effects of climate change offset its negative impacts on tree species productivity remains unclear at large spatial extents. We assessed forest growth and mortality for the 21 most abundant tree species in Europe using National Forest Inventory data from more than 50,000 plots and 700,000 trees to disentangle the relative importance of climate and forest structure. Specifically, we examined how vapor pressure deficit (VPD) anomalies across species climatic edges and stand developmental stages affect forest growth and mortality occurrence and intensity (i.e. whether mortality occurred and the amount of basal area lost). Then, we aggregated the responses across species and separately for broad-leaved and needle-leaved species to assess whether forest growth and mortality differed between major functional groups. Although the importance of forest growth and mortality drivers varied markedly among species, climate had a stronger influence on mortality than on growth, particularly in needle-leaved species. Forest growth declined and mortality increased along VPD anomaly in most species and forests studied. Responses were most pronounced at arid species edges in early-stage broad-leaved forests and at wet edges in late-stage needle-leaved forests, where differences between functional groups were also highest. We evidence the need to parametrise species-specific models of forest growth and mortality across large spatial extents to better understand and predict effects of climate change on forest productivity. In addition, our results emphasize the importance of improving the understanding of forest mortality processes given the strong influence of climate on mortality, while also further studying vulnerable populations to climate change in arid edges of species distributions.

AimA comprehensive understanding of the spatial distribution of biodiversity is hindered by fragmented datasets, sampling biases, and inconsistent observation protocols. Here, we present a workflow that integrates disparate datasets to produce large scale maps of biodiversity metrics as a basis for management-relevant information tools. We use integrated species distribution modeling (iSDM) to account for sampling biases and disparate data collection techniques, taking advantage of the vast numbers of open datasets available in data aggregators like GBIF. LocationNorway (excluding Svalbard and Jan Mayen) TaxonVascular plants MethodsThe workflow consists of four main steps: data acquisition, data integration, integrated species distribution modelling (iSDM), and the production of derived outputs. Input data include structured surveys, opportunistic observations, and environmental covariates. These are standardised and integrated into a point-processed based iSDM framework to produce species richness maps, associated uncertainties, and sampling effort maps. The outputs are further processed to identify biodiversity hotspots or to summarise species-environment relationships. The workflow used vascular plant data from Norway, combining occurrence-only and presence-absence datasets with environmental covariates. Outputs were generated at a spatial resolution of 500 x 500 meters, balancing accuracy, computational feasibility and relevance for management decisions. High-performance computing resources were utilized for model fitting and predictions. A subset of available data was used to validate the species richness maps. ResultsWe produced detailed maps of species richness, uncertainties and sampling intensity across Norways heterogeneous landscape, incorporating 1218 species in our final results. The species richness patterns highlight patterns consistent with previous mapping efforts. Validation showed an increase in model accuracy when compared to models which did not use an iSDM framework. The workflow highlights limitations in the infrastructure of the currently openly accessible data, particularly the need for more structured presence-absence datasets and standardized metadata. Main conclusionsThis study underscores the potential of workflows that integrate disparate datasets for biodiversity modeling. To maximize accuracy and utility, future efforts should focus on improving data standardization, the publication and collection of more structured data, and fostering data-sharing collaborations. Advances in the workflow itself, including optimising modelling covariates and integrating more comprehensive spatio-temporal aspects, will also increase the relevance of the outputs. These advances will increase our ability to estimate species richness with a precision and accuracy that can reliably inform conservation and management decisions.

Plants, as structural elements of habitats, contribute greatly to the maintenance of local biodiversity through their biological interactions. In this study we explore whether their rarity, according to Rabinowitzs (1981) three criteria, is related to the richness and diversity of arthropods and other plants they are associated to, in a gypsum-rich steppe. We first analysed whether the geographic abundance and ecological specialisation of 32 characteristic and dominant plant species are related to the diversity (richness and phylogenetic diversity (MPD)) and degree of local specialisation of arthropods associated with them (1,694 taxa). Then, we focused on a non endemic and non specialized plant in the study area (Krascheninnikovia ceratoides) to explore the effect of population size on two types of interactions: aerial arthropods and plant facilitation. Results indicate that: 1) plant species abundance (geographical range) is not related to the richness or MPD of communities of associated arthropods, 2) plant species ecological specialization (edaphic endemisms or gypsophiles) do not contribute differentially to the maintenance of singular arthropod communities, and 3) the community of aerial arthropods and plants interacting with K. ceratoides in a small population are not necessarily less diverse than those in patches of similar size in a large population. Results also revealed that the two plant species with fewer interactions (one rare, one widespread) do show the highest singularity in their interactions with arthropods. Our study illustrates the important contribution of rare plants to the conservation of local biodiversity.

Subalpine forests in the Alps are fragile ecosystems that play a crucial role in regional water resources and the local climate. These ecosystems are ecologically significant due to their unique biodiversity and vulnerability to climate change. While several components of the hydrological balance have been studied, the interplay between catchment-scale processes and plot-scale drivers such as fog presence and forest age remains insufficiently understood. To address this, we investigated the hydrological balance of a subalpine coniferous forest catchment at the Renon site in the Italian Alps, integrating observations across spatial scales. The study area includes a mosaic of mature and younger regrowth forest, where both interannual and seasonal variability in precipitation and fog presence are pronounced. At the catchment scale, we quantified above-canopy precipitation, evapotranspiration (ET, measured via eddy covariance at the ICOS tower), stream discharge, and soil moisture dynamics. Within the catchment, we characterised water partitioning using sap flow sensors for tree transpiration, throughfall and stemflow collectors with rain gauges above and below the canopy and epiphyte sampling. Mixed fog-rain events frequently coincided with higher throughfall. However, these changes had a minor effect on soil water storage and catchment discharge in the annual water balance, which was nearly closed. At the plot scale, our results show that tree transpiration was higher in the younger forest structure, while canopy interception is a dominant process in water partitioning in the older forest structure, where lichen abundance likely enhances interception. This study highlights the importance of multi-scale monitoring in temperate mountain forests, where forest age influences water partitioning, and fog presence, though not directly quantified, can still contribute to reducing evaporative processes. Such contributions may gain importance under changing climate conditions, albeit less prominently than in tropical or subtropical cloud forests.

Theory predicts that demographic performance should peak at the core of species ranges and decrease toward their limits. Yet, empirical correlations between population growth rate and species distribution remain weak for most tree species. Part of the problem may arise from the difficulty of integrating multiple demographic processes across the complex life cycle of a forest, and from the significant variability among individuals and locations. It remains unclear if the mismatch between performance and distribution arises from modelling limitations or if climate is simply a poor predictor of species performance across distributions. Here, rather than asking whether demographic performance correlates with species distributions, we ask how climate and competition jointly shape population growth rate for 31 tree species across eastern North America. By combining flexible nonlinear hierarchical models for growth, survival, and recruitment with explicit uncertainty propagation, we use Integral Projection Models to address key gaps in previous studies. Perturbation analyses revealed that population growth rate was consistently more sensitive to mean annual temperature than to conspecific or heterospecific competition across all species. We further examined how sensitivities to climate and competition varied across species thermal ranges. The dominance of climate over competition increased toward both cold and hot range limits, while sensitivity to competition generally declined from cold to hot limits. Notably, these patterns emerged along the continental thermal gradient shared across species rather than within each species individual range, suggesting that range-edge demographic responses may arise as a community-level phenomenon. Across species, the largest source of variability remained the local plot conditions captured by random effects, likely reflecting differences in soil conditions, drainage, and disturbance history. Together, these results may provide a mechanistic pathway underlying the performance declines predicted by range-limit theories, and offer a basis for understanding how forest populations and communities may reorganize in response to ongoing climate change and shifting disturbance regimes.

Sky islands are high-elevation ecosystems surrounded by lowland habitats that create isolated environments with distinct climatic conditions. These factors have driven the evolution of many endemic species, separated from their larger, contiguous populations. An Individual-Based Model (IBM) was used to simulate population dynamics by modeling the behaviors and interactions of Tamiasciurus hudsonicus grahamensis (Mount Graham Red Squirrel) a subspecies of the American red squirrel (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus) that is endemic to the Pinaleno Mountains in southeastern Arizona. This approach can help predict future population trends based on historical species data leading to better conservation decisions. Using species-specific ecological preferences--including temperature, precipitation, and vegetation indices (NDVI)--an IBM was developed to simulate population dynamics and spatial distribution projections through 2100. Climate change projections, based on the best- and worst-case scenarios outlined in the 2014 National Climate Assessment, were incorporated to assess potential future population trends under changing environmental conditions. The population faces a 45-62% probability of extinction by 2100, with a significant risk of extinction within the next 50 years. A translocation experiment was conducted to evaluate the viability of relocating individuals to the Chiricahua Mountains, another sky island with a larger habitable area. However, the risk of extinction remains even higher (87-89%) due to environmental disturbances affecting both the Chiricahua and Pinaleno regions. This highlights the challenges of conservation efforts in the face of climate change and emphasizes the need for targeted management strategies to preserve this critically endangered subspecies.